81291145-Assessing energy system impacts of coal transformation in Ukraine - LOT 1: Macroeconomic and sectoral Modelling on national and district level

Description

The German-Ukrainian cooperation in the project "Supporting structural change in Ukrainian coal regions" (Just Transition Ukraine) between the German Federal Ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate Action (BMWK) and the Ukrainian Ministry of Energy (MinEnergo) and the Ministry of Communities and Territories Development (MinRegion) has been commissioned to Deutsche Gesellschaft für internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) in 2021. The objective of the project is to make Ukraine socially and economically sustainable for the structural change associated with the phase-out of coal with the involvement of civil society, using adapted support instruments and according to the concepts of Just Transition and Green Recovery. Within this context, the project seeks to commission a consultancy firm/a consortium of firms to provide technical and legal advice to partner ministries on the development of a strategic and legal framework for structural change as well as on the implementation of multi-stakeholder processes with regional and local actors from the coal regions. The analytical and technical support in this policy area should be in line with other relevant national and international strategies and action programmes. It should consider regional and local interests in the preparation of the national Just Transition strategy and foster local self-government. Overall, the Ukrainian coal sectors expands to 5 coal mining regions with 25 territorial communities, so called "Mono Towns", 33 operating state-owned mines, 12 private mines, and a total of about 70,000 mine workers with over 800.000 inhabitants directly or indirectly affected by transformation in the surrounding areas. A gradual phase-out of coal extracting was preliminary proposed until 2035, with the Russian invasion of Ukraine challenging this phase-out path on grounds of urgent supply needs, reconstruction and energy independence by domestic resources. Prior to the war, in July 2021, a Memorandum of Partnership was signed between the municipalities of Chervonohrad and Myrnohrad in the framework of participation in the Just Transition project, both pilot municipalities committing to strengthened cooperation with Germany. The parallel project activities in the two pilot regions in Western and Eastern Ukraine, are emblematic for the project"s approach to promote the idea of "equal footing and pace" and the ambition to tailor a model of fair coal transformation applicable to any local circumstances. Due to the proximity of the front line, all physical liquidation activities in the Eastern pilot region are temporarily on hold. Irrespective of war times it was reconfirmed by the Ukrainian government to proceed with the liquidation of unprofitable state-owned coal mines and transformation programmes in the Western part of Ukraine to ease the pressure on public budgets and provide future economic perspectives to the regions The assignment is designed in Lot 1 and Lot 2 with different fields of expertise required. The the assignments of both lots are to be intertwined. Bidders may apply for an individual Lot or both Lots, including the formation of a consortium. The contractor will be responsible for providing services and deliverables to subsequent work packages (either to an individual Lot or both Lots) including the accompanying milestones. Lot 1: Lot 1: Work Package 1/a and 1/b - Macroeconomic and sectoral modelling: National and regional level With macroeconomic and sectoral modelling, the contractor supports the Ukrainian government to take decisions based on transparent facts and figures, allowing for an effective, least cost and at the same time just structural change based on a broad societal consensus, and ensuring future economic development of Ukrainian coal regions. Fields of modelling include assessing the impact of a coal exit on the energy system, macroeconomic indicators, the labour market, tariffs, as well as social and environmental aspects, taking into account the impacts of Russia"s invasion of Ukraine. Hybrid models for the energy sector, labour market and input-output models for the pilor regons should interlink with available data, but also explore latest primary data resources. In parallel to the top-down modelling, the contractor will provide detailed and precise modelling of the socioeconomic, environmental energy system impacts of mine closure on the pilot regions. Analytical evidence gained should be subsequently linked to socio-economic research and the contribution of draft strategies and action plans in the coal transformation process. Lot 2: Work Package - Ad-hoc Policy Research and Advice (separated, not part of this tender) By delivering policy research and advisory services to Ukrainian decision-making bodies in coal sector and regional transformation, the contractor assesses the aptness of existing Ukrainian policies and laws for addressing the challenges posed by structural change in Ukraine, identifying areas for improvement, and establishing a consistent national framework for structural change of coal regions in terms of "Just Transition" and "Green Recovery". Areas for policy and legal research and advice include economic and regional development, social and labour affairs as well as energy and environmental policies. The contractor further blends in the international perspective by comparative studies with other European coal regions and their paths of coal-phase out, suggesting adopted "just transition" policies e.g. in the social, labour market and educational spheres, to municipal energy systems or about regional economic development by smart growth approaches. Legal-administrative consultancy should lead to the development of the regulatory framework, including budgetary programmes, strengthening of local self-government and facilitating local investments. Assessments should further include all impacts of the National Recovery Plan and post-war scenarios on transformation policies of coal-dependent regions.