C3S2_452 Development of a statistical framework for event attribution

Description

ECMWF, as the Entrusted Entity for the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), invites Tenders for the development of a statistical framework for event attribution. ECMWF intends to award a single Framework Agreement for a period of maximum 24 months, which shall be implemented via a single multi-annual Service Contract expected to commence in Q4 2026. The main objective of this Invitation to Tender (ITT) is to develop a statistical, e.g. Bayesian, framework for event attribution to support the evolution of C3S’s operational extreme events monitoring and attribution activities. C3S aims to: (a) Develop a statistical framework for event attribution that integrates climate model output, observations, physical drivers, multi-model ensembles, and prior knowledge, and produces posterior probability distributions. (b) Deliver a methodology with accompanying software or analytical tools that generate probabilistic attribution assessments, including posterior distributions of event likelihood, intensity, and uncertainty. (c) Design the framework to be user-friendly and computationally efficient, supporting future practical application within C3S operational services and enabling climate services, adaptation planning, and risk management. Portal instructions: Some of the ITT documents are accessible under the ‘Attachments’ box at bottom right of this page. The full set of ITT documents which are provided inside the response questionnaire are only accessible by registering an interest in this opportunity (see the 'Expression of interest window' at top right). Please refer initially to the ‘ECMWF eProcurement Portal Guidance for suppliers’ file in the Attachments box as this document will help you navigate the portal and locate the necessary information in order to submit a proposal. Please note that the contact email address shown under 'Contact details' is not monitored, and any messages sent to this email address will not be attended to. Questions / clarifications concerning this ITT must be submitted via the Messaging area of the ITT, which can be accessed through the My Activities page of the Portal once you have logged-in and registered your interest in this opportunity. Keywords: attribution, statistical framework